Striking a balance

In November Shelter published Homes for the future, which provides the latest evidence on how much additional housing will be required up to 2026. The research estimates overall requirements but concentrates on the need for social rented and affordable housing. For current information, see additional information. For current information, see further research.

Critics argue that the current economic crisis makes attempts to forecast demand this far into the future pointless. Yet cyclical falls in the market do not affect the underlying structural changes fuelling the growth in demand. If these longer term trends are ignored, greater housing market volatility could follow when the economy improves – as has happened at least twice before.

So why is the requirement for more homes increasing? The estimates start from official household projections, which suggest that by 2026 there will be almost 26 million households in England, compared to 21.5 million in 2006. This is an increase of more than 20 per cent – a growth rate higher than at any time in the past and the result of people living longer, net migration and changes in household composition.